How to trade prediction markets on Hyperliquid

What an outcome market is

HIP-4 adds outcome markets to Hyperliquid: contracts on a question with a fixed answer, such as “Will BTC be above a set price at 06:00 UTC tomorrow?” Each market has two tokens, usually Yes and No. When the market settles:

• the winning side pays 1 USDC per token,
• the losing side pays 0.

Some templates allow a fractional settlement between 0 and 1, but binary markets settle to 1 or 0.

Outcomes are fully collateralized: you pay the full price up front. There’s no leverage, no funding and no liquidation. Your maximum loss is what you paid, and your maximum payout is 1 USDC per token. For the protocol design, see HIP-4 outcome markets.

Who can use them

Hyperliquid’s app terms (last updated 15 June 2026) bar “Restricted Persons” from the whole interface, including anyone in the United States or Ontario (section 1.6). Section 1.7 adds a separate category for outcome markets: they are not available to “Excluded Persons”, defined as people in jurisdictions Hyperliquid designates from time to time, or for whom access would be unlawful or need a licence. trade.xyz’s disclaimer says the same about US persons. See is Hyperliquid available in the US. We don’t advise on getting around these rules.

What’s listed

A snapshot from Hyperliquid’s outcomeMeta endpoint (4 Nov 2026, 07:28 UTC):

	Count
Outcomes	279
Questions (groups of outcomes where exactly one wins)	25
Quote asset	USDC for all of them

Who deploys them:

Venue	Outcomes	Mostly
out	160	Sports results and tournaments, crypto price binaries and price-touch markets, policy-rate decisions, IPO market cap
skew	66	Crypto price binaries, IPO first-day market cap
txyz (trade.xyz Events)	40	Price binaries on trade.xyz markets (for example SPCX, oil), sports, IPO questions
fox	5	Price binaries
Protocol (recurring)	8	Daily BTC, ETH, SOL and HYPE Yes/No binaries, plus one recurring multi-outcome question

Protocol recurring markets are created and settled automatically by Hyperliquid. The daily binaries settle at 06:00 UTC to the HyperCore mark price. Hyperliquid’s spec settles Yes if the mark price, interpolated to the exact settlement time, is at or above the target price.

Hyperliquid’s own HIP-4 page still describes the initial release, so the live catalogue is broader than the docs suggest.

How trading works

One book for Yes and No

Hyperliquid merges the Yes and No order books. Buying Yes at price p is the same as selling No at 1 − p. If Yes trades at 0.62, No is effectively 0.38. Liquidity posted on either side counts for both.

Questions with several answers

A question groups outcomes where exactly one will settle Yes, such as a football match with “Team A”, “Team B” and “Draw”. Each outcome has its own book, but they’re linked, so holders of No on several outcomes can redeem USDC before settlement.

A worked example

Say a daily BTC market’s Yes token trades at 0.40 and you buy 100 Yes for 40 USDC.

• If BTC settles at or above the target: you receive 100 USDC.
• If not: your tokens are worth 0 and you lose the 40 USDC.
• You can also sell before settlement at whatever the market pays, if there’s a buyer.

Fees are on top; see below.

How markets resolve

Each venue publishes its own resolution rules. For trade.xyz Events (venue txyz), daily Up/Down markets resolve using a five-minute time-weighted average of the referenced market’s one-minute candles ending at the resolution time: each candle’s (high + low + close) ÷ 3, averaged over five candles. Yes wins only if the result is strictly greater than the strike; a tie goes to No.

trade.xyz notes that resolution has two steps: the methodology determines the result, and then an authorized deployer account submits it to HyperCore, which applies it on-chain. A data source doesn’t settle a market on its own, and once settlement is applied, a later correction doesn’t reverse it.

Always read the full market terms, not just the title. trade.xyz warns that words like “above”, “at least” and “more than” can change the result at the boundary.

Fees

Hyperliquid’s documentation is not fully consistent here:

• The fee page says outcome trading charges fees only when you close or settle, not when you open; uses the spot fee schedule (0.070% taker, 0.040% maker at tier 0); counts only fee-paying volume toward your tier; and pays no maker rebates.
• The HIP-4 page says fees are “currently zero for outcome markets for initial testing.”
• trade.xyz says its txyz markets add no deployer fee, so users pay Hyperliquid’s base outcome rates.

Check the fee shown in the order form before you trade. Front ends can also add a builder fee on sell orders; see builder codes.

How to start

1. Set up a Hyperliquid account and deposit USDC: how to start trading, deposit USDC. Set the referral code before your first trade.
2. Open an interface that shows outcome markets. trade.xyz offers one for its Events; check domains on our official links.
3. Read the market terms: question, data source, resolution time and time zone, threshold, and what happens if the event is postponed or cancelled.
4. Buy Yes or No with a limit order at a price you’re happy with. Liquidity can be thin.
5. Hold to settlement or sell earlier if there’s a buyer.

Risks

From trade.xyz’s own Events risk disclosure:

• A position can settle at zero, a total loss of what you paid. Defined maximum loss doesn’t mean low risk.
• Liquidity can vanish near the end; you may not be able to exit and should be ready to hold to settlement.
• Resolution can be delayed, disputed or affected by source errors, and your collateral stays locked meanwhile.
• Don’t assume refunds for postponed or cancelled events unless the terms say so.
• Similar-sounding markets on other venues may use different sources and settle differently.

Common mistakes

• Reading the title, not the terms.
• Treating a 0.95 price as “nearly free money”; you risk 0.95 to make 0.05.
• Mixing up time zones on resolution times.
• Market orders in thin books.

If something goes wrong

• Market hasn’t settled yet: settlement needs the deployer to submit the result; it can lag the event.
• Settled differently than expected: check the full terms and declared data source; on-chain settlement isn’t reversed by later corrections.
• Can’t see outcome markets: they may be unavailable where you are under section 1.7 of the terms.