HIP-4: outcome markets

Perps answer “where will the price go, and how far?” Outcome markets answer a simpler question: “will this happen, yes or no?” HIP-4 builds that into Hyperliquid’s exchange engine. Like every HIP, it’s a new capability running next to perps and spot, not a replacement for HIP-3.

If you’ve seen a prediction market, the shape is familiar. A “Yes” share pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn’t. If Yes trades at $0.62, the market is pricing roughly a 62% chance.

How an outcome works

• Two sides, two tokens. Each outcome has a Yes token and a No token (the API calls them sideSpecs).
• Settlement converts tokens to money. At settlement, each Yes becomes settleFraction units of the quote asset and each No becomes 1 − settleFraction. For a plain binary, that’s 1 and 0.
• Fully collateralized. A Yes plus a No always equals exactly 1 unit, so every position is fully paid for up front. There is no leverage, no margin call and no liquidation. The most you can lose is what you paid.
• One merged book. Buying Yes at $0.62 is the same trade as selling No at $0.38, so Hyperliquid merges both into one order book to share liquidity. Within a price level, resting sell orders get priority over “dual” buy orders (“price-side-time” priority).
• Split and merge. Advanced users can mint a Yes+No pair from 1 USDC or merge a pair back into 1 USDC.

Questions: several outcomes, one winner

A question groups outcomes where exactly one will settle Yes, such as “home win / draw / away win”. Each outcome has its own book, but negate and merge operations link them: if you hold No on every outcome but one, you can redeem early instead of waiting for settlement. Most questions also carry a fallback outcome (“other”) so there is always a winner.

What’s listed, as of 4 November 2026

From the Hyperliquid info API (outcomeMeta) at 07:27 UTC. Counts change daily as markets settle and new ones are registered; the same endpoint showed 279 outcomes earlier that day.

Venue	Outcomes	Typical markets
out	160	Football, NBA, NFL results and tournament winners; BTC, HYPE and oil price-touch; Fed rate decision; some crypto binaries and Anthropic IPO markets
skew	66	Short-dated crypto price binaries (e.g. ETH above a threshold on the Pyth price); Anthropic IPO first-day market cap
txyz	40	Price binaries on trade.xyz perps (SPCX, CL, GOLD) and HYPE; Anthropic IPO markets; baseball tournament winners
fox	4	Very short-dated BTC price binaries settled on the Hyperliquid BTC perp
Protocol (no venue)	8	Recurring daily BTC binary and BTC price-bucket question
Total	278	25 questions

All 278 outcomes were quoted in USDC. By template, price binaries were the largest group (104), followed by sports markets (107 across participant, winner, draw and tournament templates), price-touch markets on BTC, HYPE and crude oil (16) and Anthropic IPO markets (15 on first-day market cap, 1 on whether the IPO happens by a date). There was also one macro question: the upper bound of the Fed funds target range at the December 2026 FOMC meeting.

The protocol’s own market: daily BTC

Hyperliquid itself runs a recurring BTC binary that settles every day at 06:00 UTC against the HyperCore BTC mark price. Its current spec lives in the description field, for example class:priceBinary|underlying:BTC|expiry:20261105-0600|targetPrice:77719|period:1d. To avoid a single bad tick deciding the result, settlement interpolates linearly between the mark price updates just before and just after 06:00. A companion price-bucket question splits the outcome into three ranges (below, between and above two thresholds).

The docs lag the live system

Read Hyperliquid’s own HIP-4 page and you’d think only one market exists: it describes “the first market”, the daily BTC binary, and says multi-outcome markets “are not part of the initial mainnet release.” The live API shows multi-outcome questions, four third-party venues and sports, IPO and macro markets. Similarly, the HIP-4 deployer actions page is still labelled testnet-only, while the API lists four mainnet deployers with sub-deployers that register and settle outcomes. We cite both and treat the API as the record of what’s actually live.

Fees

The two relevant doc pages say different things:

• The HIP-4 overview says fees are currently zero “for initial testing”, and that builder codes work as in spot, earning builder fees on sell orders.
• The fee schedule says outcome trades pay fees only when closing or settling, not when opening, that only fee-paying volume counts toward your tier, and that outcome trading has no maker rebates.

Check the fee your interface shows. If you trade through a third-party app, it may add a builder fee on sells.

Why it matters to you

• Defined risk. Unlike a perp, you can’t be liquidated, and your maximum loss is the price you paid.
• Prices are probabilities. A Yes at $0.30 implies about a 30% chance. If you think the true odds are different, that’s the trade.
• Settlement rules are the product. Read the description string: the data source (HyperCore mark, Pyth, an official league source), the exact time, and how ties or cancellations resolve.
• Liquidity varies a lot. Many outcomes are new and thinly traded. A limit order is usually better than a market order.

What can go wrong

See also: HIP-3 builder-deployed perps, the order book, and all markets.